Saturday, December 24, 2005

Coffee shortage looms two years from now

A world coffee shortage is looming two years from now as yields from Brazilian trees dwindle and a global surplus in 2006-07 fails to replenish stockpiles in producer countries, commodity analysts F.O. Licht forecast.

“In 2007-08, stocks could be at a critically low level,” F.O. Licht Man- aging Director Helmut Ahlfeld said Fri-day in a telephone interview from its head office in Ratzeburg, Germany.
Costs have risen for producers in Brazil, the world’s biggest grower and exporter of coffee, while the strengthening real has hurt earnings. The Brazilian currency has gained 53 percent versus the dollar since the beginning of 2003.
“This makes it difficult to embark on renewing billions of trees, which are now beginning to age and are past their prime,” F.O. Licht said in a report today. “Without replanting, yields will begin to slip back in the years to come.”
Yields from Brazilian trees will naturally fall in 2007-08 after a big harvest the previous year. Abundant coffee crops are typically followed by smaller ones as the trees require about one year to recover.

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Friday, December 23, 2005

"Starbucks News Watch"

Starbucks Betting on Drivethrus


SEATTLE, Dec 23, 2005 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Leaning out the window of her SUV, Tami Cornwell orders the same drink she gets almost every day: "Double-tall, four-pump vanilla caramel Macchiato." A high-tech recruiter, she's gotten hooked on the growing number of drivethrus Starbucks has been opening in recent years. "On weekends, I like to go into the store," she said one morning at a drivethru north of downtown on her way to work. "On the weekdays, it's more about convenience and caffeine."

The world's largest specialty coffee chain once shunned the drivethru concept, fearing it might alienate customers who like to come inside and sip their lattes while listening to music in cozy chairs. In the early 1990s, as independent espresso stands were starting to gain a steady following, Starbucks stuck to its original game plan: giving people a "third place" to escape from the hustle and bustle of home and work. Eventually, it got hard to ignore coffee lovers' demand for a quick java fix without leaving the warmth of their driver's seats. "We have a habit of giving customers what they want, and when a customer has six kids in their car or their favorite pets and it's raining or snowing, that's creating an experience for them that will want to make them use a drivethru," said Jim Donald, Starbucks' president and chief executive.

Starbucks started testing out the market in 1994, opening its first drivethrus in car-crazed Southern California. It had dozens of drivethrus doing brisk business within a few years. There were 170 and counting by 2001. It opened 354 drivethrus in the U.S. during its latest fiscal year, pushing its nationwide total to 1,065 - nearly 15 percent of its roughly 7,300 domestic stores. The 2005 fiscal year, which ended Oct. 2, marked the first time drivethrus comprised more than half of Starbucks' new company-operated stores - those that aren't licensed in airports, hotels, grocery stores and the like.

The company now has drivethrus in every state but Vermont and Wyoming. Internationally, Canada has 35 drivethrus, there are nine in Japan, four in Mexico, and one each in Puerto Rico and Indonesia.

Aside from the headset-wearing baristas, the ambiance in many of its drivethrus reveals the same attention to decor Starbucks gives its traditional stores, with cushy chairs and art on the walls.

Drivethrus will continue to add to Starbucks' bottom line, making up about half of the new stores the company opens domestically over the next few years, Donald said.

Starbucks would not disclose how much drivethrus have boosted its revenues, though Donald said in general, they tend to post higher first-year sales, averaging about $1 million, compared to roughly $715,000 for traditional stores.

Bruce Milletto, president of Bellissimo Coffee InfoGroup in Portland, Ore., said he's surprised it took so long for Starbucks to get into the drivethru business. His consulting firm has helped thousands of small businesses open coffee shops and drivethrus over the past 15 years, he said. He's gotten used to hearing clients sneer at Starbucks, denouncing the company as a corporate giant that's bound to try to put them out of business. He tries to convince them it's not such a David-vs.-Goliath thing. "Starbucks is oftentimes, to the small independent coffee entrepreneur, thought of as the devil to the industry. What most people don't realize, is that without Starbucks, the industry wouldn't have exploded as it has," Milletto said.

Espresso drivethrus dot so many parking lots and street corners in Seattle and its surrounding suburbs that some have difficulty surviving. "You get customers by stealing from other drivethrus," said Mark Weber, owner of Scooter's Espresso in Seattle's Pinehurst neighborhood. "You're not creating new customers." Weber gets enough morning rush-hour customers to be breaking even after about five months in operation. He's tried to drum up new business by offering 20 percent off coffee drinks from noon to closing time, but hasn't gotten much of a response. As he sees it, Starbucks' growing drivethru presence is making it harder on independents. "They take away a lot of business away from the small operations," he said. "They were the only game in town for years, so they've built up their market share. ... They're masters at marketing, no doubt about it."

Critics have long derided Starbucks as the McDonald's of coffee. Now some chuckle that drivethrus just make them look more like it. Donald bristles at such a suggestion: "We are not the McDonald's of anything," he said. "The drivethru is another convenience for our customers as we want them to enjoy a great cup of coffee."

Starbucks: http://www.starbucks.com

Bellissimo Coffee InfoGroup: http://www.espresso101.com/

By ELIZABETH M. GILLESPIE
AP Business Writer

Starbucks Union: Statement of Solidarity with Transit Workers

As a recipient of support from TWU Local 100 members on our picket lines, it is with great honor that we express our total solidarity with striking transit workers in New York City. We know you are striking not only for your families but also for every working New Yorker.

IWW Starbucks Workers Union: Statement of Solidarity with Striking Transit Workers

As a recipient of support from TWU Local 100 members on our picket lines, it is with great honor that we express our total solidarity with striking transit workers in New York City. We know you are striking not only for your families but also for every working New Yorker.

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DJ Nybot Coffee: Arabica coffee futures climbed

(Comtex Finance)NEW YORK, Dec 22, 2005 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --Arabica coffee futures climbed on the New York Board of Trade Thursday, scaling Wednesday's high after industry buying curbed an early dip below a dollar a pound, basis March, and locals and funds bought.


The March contract closed up 160 points at $1.0280 a pound and May ended up 165 points at $1.0495.

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Great Lakes Barista Competition (Chicago) Jan. 7 - 8, 2006

Baristas Showcase Coffee-Making Skills, Vie for Regional Championship Title in Chicago, Jan. 7 - 8

Winner to Advance to United States Barista Championship in April

LONG BEACH, Calif., Dec. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Baristas, those talented people who master espresso machines and make coffee and espresso-drink making a profession, will compete in the Specialty Coffee Association of America's Great Lakes Regional Barista Competition, Jan. 7 - 8, 2006, at Kendall College in Chicago. The local contest -- which is still accepting competitor applications -- is just one of many regional competitions nationwide that lead up to the renowned United States Barista Championship. The winner of the Great Lakes Barista Competition will advance to the 2006 U.S. Barista Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina in April.

The competition is open to baristas from Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. Event times: Saturday, Jan. 7, 10 a.m. - 6:30 p.m.; Sunday, Jan. 8, 10 a.m. - 1:30 p.m. The competition is hosted by Chicago's Intelligentsia Coffee & Tea, Inc. ( http://www.intelligentsiacoffee.com/ ). The event is open to the public.

According to Marcus Boni, Vice President of Retail, Intelligentsia Coffee & Tea, the barista competition encourages and recognizes professional achievement in the art and skill of espresso beverage preparation and service. "During the competition, contestants will impress the audience with their ability as they prepare one espresso, one cappuccino and one specialty coffee drink for each of the four judges in a 15-minute window. Judges will focus on station cleanliness, taste, beverage presentation, technical skills and total impression," said Boni.

To participate, baristas may contact Michelle Campbell, 562-624-4100, mcampbell@scaa.org .

About the SCAA

Founded in 1982, SCAA is the world's largest coffee trade association with over 3,000 member companies. SCAA members are located in over 40 countries and represent every segment of the specialty coffee industry, from coffee growers to coffee roasters and retailers. The SCAA's mission is to be the recognized authority on Specialty Coffee, providing a common forum for the development and promotion of coffee excellence and sustainability. The SCAA's dedication to excellence in coffee is realized through the setting of quality standards for the industry; conducting research on coffee; equipment and perfection of craft; and providing education, training, resources and business services for members. The SCAA's annual conference is held in a different U.S. city each year and is the coffee industry's largest gathering and exhibition.


Source: Specialty Coffee Association of America

CONTACT: Mike Ferguson of Specialty Coffee Association of America,
+1-562-624-4100, or mferguson@scaa.org; or Aaron Kiel for Specialty Coffee
Association of America, +1-562-983-8113, or akiel@akprgroup.com

Web site: http://www.intelligentsiacoffee.com/

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Saint Mary's University (Halifax ) serves coffee to homeless

Did someone say Coffee?

A van full of Saint Mary’s University students took to the streets of Halifax today to spread some Christmas joy among the less fortunate.

Sporting orange t-shirts and toques, members of the Saint Mary’s University Students’ Association (SMUSA) Random Acts of Kindness (RAK) Squad will serve coffee to homeless residents of downtown Halifax.

Olivier Jarda, Vice President Academic of the Saint Mary’s University Students’ Association (SMUSA), says that this gesture shows students’ dedication to creating harmony in the community, and the strong volunteerism among the students of Saint Mary's. The initiative is being coordinated with the support of the University’s Pride in Our Shared Neighbourhood Committee.

"The Random Act of Kindness program counters some negative aspects that are associated with having a large concentration of university students in a small area of the city," explains Jarda.

"Although students add to the city's culture, vibrancy, and economic growth, the positive aspects students bring to Halifax are often overshadowed by the negatives. This initiative shows that many students believe that it is important to have a positive relationship with those we share the neighbourhood with."

The Random Acts of Kindness (RAK) Squad has launched many initiatives in the 2005 academic year, including a highly successful week-long community clothing drive in the South End of Halifax, a community litter clean-up, and serving homemade cookies to the homeless.

"As some of our past initiatives, such as picking up litter from the properties of South End residents with homes, this is an initiative aimed at helping an often neglected demographic, the homeless," adds Jarda.

Saint Mary's University is known for its community outreach projects, both in Canada and around the world. Saint Mary's, founded in 1802, is home to one of Canada's leading business schools, a Science Faculty widely known for its cutting-edge research, a comprehensive and innovative Arts Faculty and a vibrant Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research.

-30-

For More Information:

Paul Fitzgerald
Public Affairs Officer
Saint Mary's University, Public Affairs
(902) 420.5514
E-mail: paul.fitzgerald@smu.ca
www.smu.ca

Simplehuman: Simple Coffee

by Greg May

We’ve reviewed pod coffee makers in the past, and we will in the future. Easy to brew, nothing to clean, fast and convenient- the only real tradeoffs are flexibility and price- which is where the different competing standards of “pods” can make a real difference. Today, we’re looking at perhaps the most popular type of “pod”- the disc. And our favorite disc-type coffeemaker: the fairly new Simplehuman brewer.

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How to be a coffee snob

A cup of joe doesn't need to be a simple caffeine delivery device - it can be a work of art
BY SAM MCDONALD

Coffee - not gasoline - drives the American economy.

C'mon. People could theoretically walk, bike, skateboard or Segway to work. But we challenge you to find an office or shop that hums along efficiently without the productivity-prodding effects of hot java.

Of course, not everyone actually enjoys that cup of high-octane brew. Bad coffee remains a plague of corporate cubical mazes and Jiffy Lube waiting rooms alike.Starbucks - the Seattle-based coffee franchise king - may have injected phrases like "Mint Chocolate Chip Frappuccino" and "Caramel Macchiato" into the national vocabulary, but they've yet to exterminate burned, bitter, watery, bad coffee.Here's our solution. Soak up this primer on the nation's favorite non-fizzy beverage, then go forth and amaze your taste buds (and friends) with the magical properties of a wet-processed Papua New Guinea, a Costa Rica Tarrazu or a fruity, spicy Yemen Mocha.In other words, become a coffee snob.

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Sunday, December 18, 2005

"Starbucks News Watch"

Starbucks Brews Up Successful Formula for Growth


Dec 18, 2005 (Chicago Tribune - Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News via COMTEX)

Coffee traditionalists may flinch at Starbucks Corp.'s winter offering, the Chai Eggnog Latte. But they're still flocking to buy their cups of Joe:

The seemingly ubiquitous coffee shop continues to awe competitors and detractors alike. In November, Starbucks' same-store sales rose 7 percent, roaring past industry forecasts and helping to sustain a recent surge in its stock price. As one of the country's great growth-stock stories, Starbucks continues to generate earnings above the market average, an extraordinary streak that has taken place every quarter since the company went public in 1992, said Ashley Reed Woodruff, restaurant analyst at Bear Stearns. Looking at Starbucks' fiscal 2006, which began Oct. 3, Wall Street analysts expect the company's earnings to grow 20 percent to 24 percent, and revenue to rise roughly 20 percent, to about $7.6 billion, according to Thomson Financial. Growth is something Starbucks knows, and knows well. Like any aggressive retailer, the Seattle-based chain continues to add products, such as breakfast, Baby Boomer CDs and seasonal favorites like a gingerbread latte. After the stock nearly tripled from the end of 2002 through 2004, Starbucks shares traded downward through much of this year as inflated growth expectations were not met. But this fall, as Starbucks defied the presumption that higher gasoline prices would cut into pricey coffee purchases, the stock rebounded. Starbucks shares are up 27 percent since the end of August. But the stock isn't cheap. Based on forward 12-month earnings, Starbucks' price-to-earnings multiple is around 40, well above the market's average of 15.5. Because Starbucks has historically traded at a 120 percent premium to the market, its current valuation is a bit pricey for Jim Margard, chief investment officer at Rainier Investment Management. Though Margard, whose firm manages $7.7 billion, owns a small amount of Starbucks in his aggressive growth fund, he hasn't included the stock in his much larger Rainier Core Equity Fund.

"We'relooking for growth at a reasonable price, and right now, though they're doing extremely well executing their business plan, we struggle with paying that premium," he said. Then again, the company's profit is growing at a clip well above the market's long-term earnings-per-share rate of 7 percent to 9 percent, said Woodruff. And that's the main reason she encourages investors to buy the stock. "The debate on Starbucks is always, do they deserve that historical multiple around 40? And we think it does," she said. "The P/E is high, but they're growing at 20 to 25 percent. If the multiple stays the same, and we think it will, you should see shares also rise 20 to 25 percent." Woodruff said stock-pickers should expect to pay extra for consistency. Rather than growing in sharp bursts and then falling backward, Starbucks has maintained same-store sales growth in the 7 percent to 9 percent range for years, she said. By all estimates, Starbucks remains an extraordinary growth company, buyer of 2.2 percent of the world's coffee. Locally owned coffeehouses be warned: Over its next fiscal year, Starbucks plans to open 1,300 new U.S. locations--stores, kiosks and licensed venues such as those in airports and hotels--and another 500 internationally. David Klaskin, manager of the Pioneer Oak Ridge Large Cap Growth Fund, agrees Starbucks is first rate. But he, too, isn't so sure its shares are a good buy. To compare Starbucks with other stocks, Klaskin uses the so-called PEG valuation. To calculate it, take a company's 12-month forward-price-to-earnings multiple and divide that by its annual earnings growth rate. The lower the figure, the more affordable the shares. Currently, the market's average is 1.5. Using a 20 percent to 21 percent annual growth rate, Klaskin calculates Starbucks' PEG multiple at 2.2. "That's not a great risk-reward," he said, adding that world coffee prices could rise and same-store sales growth could slow. Klaskin, though, isn't against buying stock in high-growth companies; rather, he's looking for companies with earnings that warrant what is a comparatively expensive share price. A favorite is Google Inc. Even with a forward P/E of 48 to 50, Klaskin said he's enamored with the company's consensus five-year growth rate of 33 percent. "The rationale is, I don't mind paying a 50 P/E if a company's earnings are above 30 percent," Klaskin said. "For Google, there's a lot of risk, but I think the reward is still great."

By Leon Lazaroff


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