COMMODITIES ROUNDUP

James Cordier & Michael Gross

Coffee

Coffee bulls took heart on Friday on a news report that German statistician F.O. Licht projected that world coffee production will fall short of demand by nearly 6 million bags this year. The figures confirmed similar figures released by the International Coffee Organization earlier.

Figures viewed in a vacuum, however, can be deceiving. Licht is sighting this year's (03-04) world production (pegged at 101-106 million bags) vs. this year's projected consumption (est. at 109.5 million bags). While on the surface, the figure looks bullish, it does not reflect the full supply situation for coffee.

More...